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Ocean Science An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-12
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-12
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 28 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 28 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal OS.

An approach to the verification of high-resolution ocean models using spatial methods

Ric Crocker, Jan Maksymczuk, Marion Mittermaier, Marina Tonani, and Christine Pequignet Ric Crocker et al.
  • Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract. The Met Office currently runs two operational ocean forecasting configurations for the North West European Shelf, an eddy-permitting model with a resolution of 7 km (AMM7), and an eddy-resolving model at 1.5 km (AMM15).

Whilst qualitative assessments have demonstrated the benefits brought by the increased resolution of AMM15, particularly in the ability to resolve fine-scale features, it has been difficult to show this quantitatively, especially in forecast mode. Application of typical assessment metrics such as the root mean square error have been inconclusive, as the high-resolution model tends to be penalised more severely (double-penalty effect).

An assessment of SST has been made at in-situ observation locations using a single-observation-neighbourhood-forecast (SO-NF) spatial method known as the High-Resolution Assessment (HiRA) framework, which utilises ensemble and probabilistic forecast verification metrics such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). It is found that through the application of HiRA it is possible to identify improvements in the higher resolution model which were not apparent using typical grid scale assessments.

This work suggests that future comparative assessments of ocean models with different resolutions would benefit from using HiRA as part of the evaluation process, as it gives a more equitable and appropriate reflection of model performance at higher resolutions.

Ric Crocker et al.

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Ric Crocker et al.

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Latest update: 28 Mar 2020
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Short summary
We assessed the potential benefit of a new verification metric, developed by the atmospheric community, to assess high-resolution ocean models against coarser resolution configurations. Typical verification metrics often do not show any benefit when high-resolution models are compared to lower resolution configurations. The new metric showed improvements in higher resolution models away from the grid-scale. The technique can be applied to both deterministic and ensemble forecasts.
We assessed the potential benefit of a new verification metric, developed by the atmospheric...
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