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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-42
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2019-42
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 May 2019

Research article | 03 May 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS).

The climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea in a regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Ivan Parras-Berrocal1, Ruben Vazquez1, William Cabos2, Dmitry Sein3, Rafael Mañanes1, Juan Perez-Sanz2, and Alfredo Izquierdo1 Ivan Parras-Berrocal et al.
  • 1Applied Physics Department, University of Cadiz, Cadiz, 11510, Spain
  • 2Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Alcala, Alcala de Henares, 28801, Spain
  • 3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany

Abstract. We assess the role of ocean feedbacks in the simulation of the present climate and on the downscaled climate change signal in the Mediterranean Sea with the regionally coupled model REMO-OASIS-MPIOM (ROM). The ROM oceanic component is global with regionally high horizontal resolution in the Mediterranean Sea. In our setup the Atlantic and Black Sea circulations are simulated explicitly. Simulations forced by ERA-Interim show a good representation of the present Mediterranean climate. Our analysis of the RCP8.5 scenario driven by MPI-ESM shows that the Mediterranean waters will be warmer and saltier across most of the basin by the end of the century. In the upper ocean layer temperature is projected to have a mean increase of 2.73 °C, while the mean salinity increases by 0.17 psu, presenting a decreasing trend in the Western Mediterranean, opposite to the rest of the basin. The warming initially takes place at the surface and propagates gradually to the deeper layers.

Ivan Parras-Berrocal et al.
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Ivan Parras-Berrocal et al.
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Latest update: 20 May 2019
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Short summary
This work presents high-resolution simulations of a coupled regional model in the Mediterranean basin. The used approach allows assessing the role of ocean feedbacks in the downscaled climate. Our results show good skills in simulating present climate; the model's robustness introduces improvements in reproducing physical processes at local scales. Our climate projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean Sea will be warmer and saltier, although not in a homogeneous way.
This work presents high-resolution simulations of a coupled regional model in the Mediterranean...
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