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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-74
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Aug 2018

Research article | 27 Aug 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS).

Could the mesoscale eddies be reproduced and predicted in the northern south China sea: case studies

Dazhi Xu1, Wei Zhuang3, and Youfang Yan2 Dazhi Xu et al.
  • 1South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou, China
  • 2South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academic of Science, Guangzhou, China
  • 3State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science & College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China

Abstract. Great progress has been made in understanding the mesoscale eddies and their role on the large-scale structure and circulation of the oceans. However, many questions still remain to be resolved, especially with regard to the reproductivity and predictability of mesoscale eddies. In this study, the reproductivity and predictability of mesoscale eddies in the Northern SCS (NSCS), a region with strong eddy activity, are investigated with a focus on two typical anticyclonic eddies (AE1 and AE2) based on a HYCOM-EnOI Assimilated System. The comparisons of assimilated results and observations suggest that generation, evolution and propagation paths of AE1 and AE2 can be well reproduced and forecasted when their amplitude >8cm, although their forcing mechanisms are quite different. However, when their intensities are less than 8cm, the generation and decay of these two mesoscale eddies cannot be well reproduced and predicted by the system. This result suggests, in addition to dynamical mechanisms, the spatial resolution of assimilation observation data and numerical models must be taken into account in reproducing and predicting mesoscale eddies in the NSCS.

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