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Ocean Science An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-170
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-170
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 14 Jan 2019

Research article | 14 Jan 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS).

Assessment of ocean analysis and forecast from an atmosphere-ocean coupled data assimilation operational system

Catherine Guiavarc'h, Christopher Harris, Daniel J. Lea, Jonah Roberts-Jones, Andrew Ryan, and Isabella Ascione Catherine Guiavarc'h et al.
  • Met Office, FitzRoy Road, EX1 3PB, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract. The development of coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction systems with utility on the short-range Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and ocean forecasting timescales has accelerated over the last decade. This builds on a body of evidence showing the benefit, particularly for weather forecasting, of more correctly representing the feedbacks between surface ocean and atmosphere. It prepares the way for more unified prediction systems with the capability of providing consistent surface meteorology, wave and surface ocean products to users for whom this is important. Here we describe a coupled ocean-atmosphere system, with weakly coupled data assimilation, which was operationalised at the Met Office as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service (CMEMS). We compare the ocean performance to that of an equivalent ocean-only system run at the Met Office, and other CMEMS products. Sea surface temperatures in particular are shown to verify better than in the ocean-only systems, although other aspects including temperature profiles and surface currents are slightly degraded. We then discuss the plans to improve the current system in future as part of the development of a coupled NWP system at the Met Office.

Catherine Guiavarc'h et al.
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Catherine Guiavarc'h et al.
Catherine Guiavarc'h et al.
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Latest update: 18 Apr 2019
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Short summary
Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling systems allow changes in the ocean to directly and immediately feed back on the atmosphere and enable improved weather prediction and ocean forecasts. This is particularly true if the coupled feedbacks are also considered in the way real-time observations of the atmospheric and oceanic states are used to obtain the initial conditions for the forecasts. Here we demonstrate promising performance from such a coupled system when used for ocean prediction.
Coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling systems allow changes in the ocean to directly and...
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