Interannual variability and future projection of summertime ocean wave heights in the western North Pacific
W. Sasaki1, T. Hibiya2, and T. Kayahara11Storm, Flood and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan 2Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Received: 19 Sep 2006 – Discussion started: 06 Oct 2006
Abstract. A 70-yr (from 1985–1995 to 2055–2065) change of decadal mean summertime extreme significant wave heights (SWH) in the western North Pacific under CO2-induced global warming condition is projected. For this purpose, possible atmospheric fields under future global warming are derived from 10-yr time-slice experiments using a T106 AGCM. The future changes of SWH are assessed by an empirical approach, where possible changes of SWH are estimated using a linear regression model which shows an empirical relationship between SWH anomalies and an eastward shift of the monsoon trough. It is projected that SWH increases by up to ~0.4 m over a wide area of the western North Pacific.
Sasaki, W., Hibiya, T., and Kayahara, T.: Interannual variability and future projection of summertime ocean wave heights in the western North Pacific, Ocean Sci. Discuss., 3, 1637-1651, doi:10.5194/osd-3-1637-2006, 2006.