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Ocean Science An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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doi:10.5194/os-2016-69
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
19 Sep 2016
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper is under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS).
Effects of the basin dynamics on sea level rise in the Black Sea
A. A. Kubryakov1,2, S. V. Stanichny1, and D. L. Volkov2,3 1Federal State Budget Scientific Institution "Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS", Sevastopol, Russia , 2900
2Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia
3NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami FL, USA
Abstract. Satellite altimetry measurements show that magnitude of the Black Sea level trends is spatially uneven. While the basin-averaged sea level was increasing at a rate of 3.15 mm/year from 1993 to 2014, the sea level rise varied from 0.15–2.5 mm/year in the central part to 3.5–3.8 mm/year in coastal areas and 5 mm/year in the southwestern part of the sea. These differences are caused by changes in the large- and mesoscale circulation of the Black Sea. A long-term increase of the cyclonic wind curl over the basin from 1979 to 2014 strengthened divergence in the center of the Black Sea that led to an increase of sea level near the coast and a decrease in the center of the basin. Changes in the distribution and intensity of mesoscale eddies caused the formation of the local extremes of sea level trend. The variability of the dynamic sea level (DSL) – the difference between the local and the basin-averaged sea levels – contributes significantly (up to ~ 50 % of the total variance) to the seasonal and interannual variability of sea level in the basin. The DSL variability in the Black Sea depends strongly on the basin-averaged wind curl and is well reconstructed using the ERA-Interim winds from 1979 to present, including the time when altimetry data was unavailable. The reconstruction can be used to correct historical tide gauges data for dynamic effects, which are usually neglected in the analysis of the Black Sea tide gauge records.

Citation: Kubryakov, A. A., Stanichny, S. V., and Volkov, D. L.: Effects of the basin dynamics on sea level rise in the Black Sea, Ocean Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/os-2016-69, in review, 2016.
A. A. Kubryakov et al.
A. A. Kubryakov et al.
A. A. Kubryakov et al.

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Short summary
The Black Sea level rise in the coastal areas is 1.5–2 times higher than in the basin center. These differences are related to the climatic changes of the large-scale and mesoscale Black Sea dynamics. In recent 20-years period the basin cyclonic circulation significantly intensifies, eddy propagation patterns change. This is associated with the variability of the atmospheric forcing: cyclonic wind curl over the basin rises significantly.
The Black Sea level rise in the coastal areas is 1.5–2 times higher than in the basin center....
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