Multivariate extreme value analysis of storm surges in SCS on peak over threshold method
Y. Luo1, D. Sui2, H. Shi3, Z. Zhou4, and D. Wang21South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China 2State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China 3China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying & Designing CO., LTD, China 4School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, China
Received: 24 Sep 2015 – Accepted for review: 07 Oct 2015 – Discussion started: 13 Nov 2015
Abstract. We use a novel statistical approach-MGPD to analyze the joint probability distribution of storm surge events at two sites and present a warning method for storm surges at two adjacent positions in Beibu Gulf, using the sufficiently long field data on surge levels at two sites. The methodology also develops the procedure of application of MGPD, which includes joint threshold and Monte Carlo simulation, to handle multivariate extreme values analysis. By comparing the simulation result with analytic solution, it is shown that the relative error of the Monte Carlo simulation is less than 8.6 %. By running MGPD model based on long data at Beihai and Dongfang, the simulated potential surge results can be employed in storm surge warnings of Beihai and joint extreme water level predictions of two sites.
Luo, Y., Sui, D., Shi, H., Zhou, Z., and Wang, D.: Multivariate extreme value analysis of storm surges in SCS on peak over threshold method, Ocean Sci. Discuss., 12, 2783-2805, doi:10.5194/osd-12-2783-2015, 2015.