Ocean Sci. Discuss., 8, 917-954, 2011
www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/8/917/2011/
doi:10.5194/osd-8-917-2011
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Ocean Science (OS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in OS.
Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system
G. K. Korotaev1, T. Oguz2, V. L. Dorofeyev1, S. G. Demyshev1, A. I. Kubryakov1, and Y. B. Ratner1
1Marine Hydrophysical Institute, National Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Ukraine
2Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Erdemli, Turkey

Abstract. The paper presents the development of the Black Sea community nowcasting and forecasting system under the Black Sea GOOS initiative and the EU framework projects ARENA, ASCABOS and ECOOP. One of the objectives of the Black Sea Global Ocean Observing System project is a promotion of the nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea, in order to implement the operational oceanography in the Black Sea region. The first phase in the realization of this goal was the development of the pilot nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea circulation in the framework of project ARENA funded by the EU. The ARENA project included the implementation of advanced modeling and data assimilation tools for near real time prediction. Further progress in development of the Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system was made in the frame of ASCABOS project, which was targeted at strengthening the communication system, ensuring flexible and operative infrastructure for data and information exchange between the Black Sea partners and end-users. The improvement of the system was made in the framework of the ECOOP project. As a result it was transformed into a real-time mode operational nowcasting and forecasting system. The paper provides the general description of the main parts of the system: circulation and ecosystem models, data assimilation approaches, the system architecture as well as their qualitative and quantitative calibrations.

Citation: Korotaev, G. K., Oguz, T., Dorofeyev, V. L., Demyshev, S. G., Kubryakov, A. I., and Ratner, Y. B.: Development of Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system, Ocean Sci. Discuss., 8, 917-954, doi:10.5194/osd-8-917-2011, 2011.
 
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